叙利亚阿萨德政权已经进入倒计时阶段 12月8日更新:已正式垮台

Syrian rebels are consolidating their gains in the South. They are taking the towns in Daraa without a fight and in the process capture armored vehicles fully intact. This is in Saida.

一天之內,敘利亞情勢發展相當戲劇化,沙姆組織(HTS)為主的反抗軍勢力一舉拿下多個範圍。東北方的敘利亞民主力量(SDF)越過幼發拉底河繼續突進,並控制在伊拉克邊境的關卡。敘利亞南方的德拉省等地民眾武裝起義,控制在約旦及以色列邊境區域,美國支援的東南方反抗軍勢力,開始突進拿下阿薩德政權軍勢力

Localized Clashes involving the Free Syrian Army (FSA) are claimed to be ongoing within the Town of Sahnaya, only 2.5 Miles to the South of Downtown Damascus; with Mass Defections reported from both Assad’s Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Allied Militias.

Three Iranian Officials have told the New York Times that they have begun the Evacuation of Senior Military Leaders and Personnel from Syria, in anticipation of the Imminent Collapse of the Assad Regime. Top Commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Quds Force have left Syria for refuge in both Lebanon and Iraq; in addition, Iranian Military Personnel, Diplomatic Staff and their Families, as well as Iranian Civilians began to be Evacuated on Friday, with their departure being ordered by the Iranian Embassy in Damascus and IRGC Leadership.. Some of the Evacuations took place via Commercial Flights between Damascus and Tehran, while others used Lands Routes with Lebanon, Iraq and the Syrian Port of Latakia.

目前俄军从霍姆斯撤离,伊朗因为真主党被以色列沉重打击导致无力支援,并且逐步从叙利亚撤出高级军事人员。
hts将彻底控制霍姆斯,继续南下进攻大马士革,而大马士革也不太平,自从前几天流产政变之后,城内军心涣散,已经有部分人开始道别和逃亡,而阿萨德本人和家属已经离开叙利亚
原本已被暂时压制住的南部在一夜之间出现大量起义,攻占大量城镇包括首府,成批量政府军倒戈

叙利亚政府垮台后,什叶派之弧将无法维持,有可能引发伊朗剧变

12月8日更新:没有发生很多人设想的大马士革保卫战,阿萨德政权的士兵并无战意,和亲阿萨德官僚一样大部分选择脱岗逃亡。
只经历了零星冲突就占领了大马士革,同日北部HTS正式占领霍姆斯。阿萨德本人已不知去向。
有未证实传言表示大马士革刚刚被攻破时阿萨德登上伊尔-76从国际机场起飞,飞了没多久就从雷达消失

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